KEY FACTS: Two preseason afterthoughts share the Sunday spotlight 🔦. The G in G-Men stands for ground: N.Y. ranks second in rushing yards per game. On the other sideline, Geno Smith trails only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in QB rating and has emerged as second favorite (+300) for Comeback Player of the Year.
TRENDING: The Giants’ Danny Dimes is 15-6 ATS on the road and 14-4 ATS as a ‘dog. Pete Carroll is 15-7 ATS at home when Russell Wilson is not the starting QB.
INSIGHT: More than 72% of the handle is on the Over (44.5).
NBC lead betting analyst Jay Croucher and PointsBet studio host Ryan Leaf both hit their Thursday picks: Tom Brady Over 39.5 pass attempts and the Ravens Moneyline. Here are their best Sunday plays.
Panthers ML (+160) over Falcons
"Carolina's talented 'D' should overwhelm a banged-up and ultra-conservative Falcons team."
Aaron Jones Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Buffalo
"Jones had nine catches on 10 targets last week and -- unfortunately for Green Bay -- looks like the team's most dynamic pass catcher."
THE BIG NAME
Titans ML over Texans (-107)
"Even with Malik Willis starting for Ryan Tannehill, coach Mike Vrabel will continue to have his team rolling."
Bills -10.5 over Packers (-107)
"These teams are going in opposite directions, and Buffalo is relentless at home."
Panthers QB P.J. Walker ⬆️ 185.5 Passing Yards (-115): The Falcons are the only team allowing 300+ passing yards a game, and Walker is front and center with Christian McCaffrey on the left coast.
Rams RB Darrell Henderson ⬇️ 35.5 Rushing Yards (-130): I’d still go south of this puny number because the Rams are second worst on the ground (70.5 yards per game) and SF is second best (91 allowed per).
Eagles WR A.J. Brown ⬆️ 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115): The Steelers ‘D’ is allowing a league-high 1,467 receiving yards to wideouts, and Brown is being targeted almost nine times a game.
Rationale: Pros know the Cowboys have covered 11 of their last 12 against teams with losing records and that Chicago is on a short week – with lots of travel ✈️. Joes were floored by what Da Bears did to Bill Belichick.
2. Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets
Pros: Patriots 80% handle
Joes: 50%/50% tickets
Rationale: Joes want to hop on the Jets (4-0 ATS since loss to Bengals), while Pros see history 📒 repeating itself: New England has beaten New York 12 straight times.
3. Giants (+3) @ Seahawks
Pros: Seahawks 61% handle
Joes: Giants 58% tickets
Rationale: Joes note the G-Men being 6-1 ATS, while Pros know that Seattle’s supersonic fans 🤯 make Lumen Field a dizzying venue.
KEY FACTS: Aaron Rodgers’ team is a double-digit ‘dog for the first time in his career. The Pack have lost three straight, and their receivers have dropped more balls (15) than Ryan Seacrest on New Year’s Eve 🍎. The Bills (5-1) appear flawless and have the benefit of extra rest.
TRENDING: Josh Allen is 7-2-1 ATS when the Bills are home favorites of 7+ points. The home team has covered six straight in the series.
JOSH ALLEN 300+ PASSING, 40+ RUSHING YARDS IN A BILLS WIN +495 ➡️ +675
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