KEY FACTS: The Rams are the first defending champ to be a Week 1 underdog since Denver (+3) beat Carolina in a 2016 Super Bowl rematch. Home teams are 16-3 (11-4-4 ATS) in Thursday night season openers. Coach Sean McVay says Matt Stafford has “no limitations” despite his QB’s limited throwing schedule this summer.
TRENDING: The Rams are 5-0 ATS in Week 1 since 2017. The Over hit the last nine times the Bills were an underdog.
INSIGHT: Despite the price (-131), 62% of our Moneyline handle is Buffalo.
Teddy G rocked the Penn State-Purdue Over (53.5) and Notre Dame’s 1H line (+10) versus Ohio State. Whose predictions will be sharpest this week – Jay Croucher, Ryan Leaf or Teddy?
Alabama (-20) over Texas:
“The market immediately moving the opening line a field goal in Bama’s favor signals how much the sharps love Alabama.”
Rams +2 (-107) over the Bills
“The Bills have been anointed the best team in the league, but they still have a suspect offensive line and questions at corner. And the gap between the QBs is smaller than people think.”
THE BIG NAME
Alabama-Texas Over (65.5):
“(Texas’) Steve Sarkisian might have a little insight, but that rarely helps ex-Saban coaches. I think Alabama will murder ‘em. I could see this final as 63-20.”
Rams ML (+110):
“The Rams, as home underdogs despite being defending champions, will be revved up. And the last time we saw the Bills, they sh*t the bed (on defense). Did the coaching staff take a hard look in the mirror?”
“Sprint to the window – ok, app – before the line surges past three TDs.”
Under 52 (-107):
“The Rams will pressure Josh Allen, and Matt Stafford (elbow tendinitis) might be reluctant to let it fly.”
KEY FACTS: Former Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian is in his second season (6-7) as Texas’ head coach. QB Quinn Ewers looked solid (16-for-24, 225 yards) in his Longhorns debut last week. Bryce Young (5 TDs, 0 INTs) is the Heisman favorite (+250).
TRENDING: The Under has cashed in six of Texas’ last seven games. Bama is 1-5 ATS in its last six versus teams with a winning record.
JUST THE FACTS: Both passing attacks looked sharp in Week 1. USC transfer Kedon Slovis averaged 12.8 yards per completion against West Virginia, while Vols Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton (26-for-34 combined) torched Ball State.
CASE FOR THE DOG: Pitt is battle-tested, having rallied in the Brawl against rival WV. The Vols are 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus the ACC.
Last week Iowa scored seven points – exactly seven – without scoring a touchdown. South Dakota State also didn’t reach the end zone.
What were the odds? Well, the odds of zero TDs being scored this Saturday in the Iowa State-Iowa game are +7000, or 70/1. The chances of seven points being scored on a field goal and two safeties? Our traders estimate that at 15,000/1. (Sorry, beloved clients, it’s not being offered.)
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