Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
📊 ACTION REPORT: This road favorite has over 90% handle to cover
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Two player props and a small favorite to target
🥳 PROP-A-PALOOZA: One rookie QB’s prop has gotten major attention
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: Bettors are split on Dolphins-Bills spread
The Chiefs (-8 at the Jets) are the only team to receive at least 90% of the handle to cover its Week 4 game.
The calendar has flipped to October and we get to celebrate a new month with football all day long. Let’s see 👀 which sides have been generating noteworthy action so far for Week 4.
Most Spread Tickets: Chiefs (opened -9, now -8 at Jets)
Most Spread Handle: Chiefs
Most Lopsided Spread Bet by Tickets: Chiefs 89.1%
Most Lopsided Spread Bet by Handle: Chiefs 93.5%
Biggest Discrepancy Between Tickets and Handle: Dolphins 63.4% tickets, Bills 50.4% handle (Bills opened -2.5, now -3)
Most Total Tickets: Dolphins-Bills OVER (opened 53.5, now 53)
Most Total Handle: Broncos-Bears UNDER (opened 45, now 47)
Underdog With Most Moneyline Bets: Dolphins, now +125 at Bills
Underdog With Most Moneyline Handle: Dolphins
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein has one over and one under for her two favorite player props in Week 4, while Max Meyer is selling high on the team that dropped 70 points last week.
THE PROP QUEEN
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) [1 p.m. ET]
“The Commanders have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends (19.3) after finishing with the fourth-best mark (36.6) last season. Goedert has faced two other top-10 defenses against tight ends this season and racked up 22 yards combined.”
Bengals QB Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115) [1 p.m. ET]
“Burrow hasn’t hit this number yet this season, but Tennessee is the easiest secondary he’ll face thus far. The Titans have allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season (299.7) and gave up the most (290.1) in 2022.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Bills -3 (-110) vs. Dolphins [1 p.m. ET]
“The Dolphins have been the talk of the NFL, but the Bills still have the better overall roster. Buffalo’s offense against Miami’s defense is easily the biggest mismatch in this game, and the Dolphins are last in DVOA in special teams as well.”
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Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the second-most passing TDs in the NFL (8), however the Bills have allowed just 2 passing TDs through three games.
Trying to figure out which player props to bet on for Week 4? Here are the ones that have been the most popular plays so far.
🏈 Top Passing Prop by Tickets: Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-145)
Tagovailoa is the current NFL MVP 🏆 favorite at +350 after starting off the season at +2000.
🏈 Top Passing Prop by Handle: C.J. Stroud Over Passing Yards (now 235.5) Stroud (+350) only trails Bijan Robinson (+275) in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds after the Texans QB was as high as +1300 following Week 1.
🏈 Top Rushing Prop by Tickets: Raheem Mostert Over Rushing Yards (now 50.5) Mostert has the highest yards per carry (5.42) among all running backs with at least 500 carries in the Super Bowl era 🤯.
🏈 Top Rushing Prop by Handle: Josh Allen Under Rush Attempts (now 7.5) Allen has just 12 rush attempts in his first three games after averaging 7.75 last season.
🏈 Top Receiving Prop by Tickets: Tyreek Hill Over Receiving Yards (now 90.5) After moving from 85.5 to 90.5, Hill now has the second-highest receiving yardage prop on the slate — only behind Justin Jefferson (100.5).
🏈 Top Receiving Prop by Handle: Pat Freiermuth Under Receiving Yards (now 3o.5) Freiermuth’s prop was as high as 35.5 this week against a Texans defense that has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
🏈 Top Scoring Prop by Tickets: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (now -125) Not a surprise that many of the most popular player props today come from a Dolphins-Bills game with the highest total on the board at 53 🎆.
🏈 Top Scoring Prop by Handle: Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown (now +110) Diggs and Hill combined for 1 receiving touchdown in three Dolphins-Bills games last season. Dawson Knox (2) was the only player on either team to have multiple receiving scores in those matchups.
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 1 p.m. ET
WHY WE’RE WATCHING: This is a massive battle for the AFC East race, with the Dolphins currently favored to win the division at -150 and the Bills close behind at +140. This showdown also features two of the top NFL MVP contenders in Tua Tagovailoa (+350, first) and Josh Allen (+850, fourth).
KEY FACTS: There is a bigger gap in yards per play between the Dolphins (8.4) and the second-place Vikings (6.2) than the Vikings and the 31st-ranked team in YPP in the Jets (4.2) 😮. Following a win of 35+ points (like Miami’s 70-20 win over Denver last weekend), NFL teams in the next game are 35-53-4 against the spread since 2003.
MAKING MOVES: The Bills opened as 2.5-point home favorites before the spread got pushed up to 3 on Tuesday. The total was first posted at 53.5 and reached as high as 54.5 before coming down to 53.
UPSET SPECIAL: Among all Week 4 underdogs 🐶, Miami (+125) has racked up the most moneyline tickets as well as over two times more moneyline handle than the next-closest underdog.
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Max Meyer
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