After the Cowboys edged the Chargers 20-17, unders finished with a 12-2-1 record in Week 6. A whopping 25 teams scored 21 points or fewer this week. Since when did Brian Ferentz offenses take over the NFL 😆?
That now brings unders to 56-36-1 (60.9%) on the season and 14-6 in primetime (70.0%). According to Action Network, that 60.9% mark is the best 6-week start for unders since 1991 🤯.
On the Week 7 slate, there are five totals below 40 and only two above 45.
We asked trader Wyatt Satre why he thinks unders have been such a strong bet so far this season.
ASK THE TRADER:I think unders hitting at this rate is likely driven by variance. When you look at team offense averages between this year and last year, there is very little difference. The only number that sticks out is points per drive at 1.87, which is the lowest since 2017. A key factor why that could be is there has been a bigger drop-off this year in red-zone efficiency this season compared to the last two years.
Max Meyer can't resist Tuesday college football, while Kazeem "Kaz" Famuyide makes his return to expert picks with an NBA futures bet.
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Jacksonville State +8.5 (-115) vs. Western Kentucky [7:30 p.m. ET]
“After putting up 6.7 yards per play (8th in CFB) last year, Western Kentucky’s offense has taken a big step backward this season at 5.6 (53rd). The Hilltoppers have struggled mightily stopping the run, which is not ideal against a rush-heavy Jacksonville State offense.”
THE NBA GURU
NBA MVP: Anthony Edwards (+2000)
“The Team USA bump usually helps going into the season. Edwards showed then that he’s ready to take another leap this year, and it helps that he’s a media darling.”
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
There are some strong matchups on the Week 8 college football card, highlighted by four battles between top-25 teams. Three of these clashes have already seen their spread move ➡️ by at least a point early in the week.
We brought back Wyatt Satre to help explain these shifts.
Penn State at Ohio State
Opened Ohio State -5.5, now Ohio State -4 ASK THE TRADER: We’ve seen sharp 🪒 action on Penn State so far and Ohio State is dealing with injuries on offense. The Nittany Lions have an elite defense that ranks first in CFB in drive yards allowed per play in non-garbage time against FBS teams (DPP).
Utah at USC
Opened USC -5, now USC -7 ASK THE TRADER: The opening number was an overreaction USC’s offensive performance against Notre Dame ☘️. Utah still has massive questions at quarterback without Cam Rising, and the Utes have been much more vulnerable away from Salt Lake City.
Tennessee at Alabama
Opened Alabama -9.5, now Alabama -8.5 ASK THE TRADER: Don’t make too much of this Tennessee movement yet, as it hasn’t crossed over into the 7.5 or 7 range. Tennessee struggled last week against a top defense in Texas A&M and got bailed out by turnovers and special teams. I don’t think Alabama makes those same mistakes.
The sports calendar is about to ramp up with the NBA season tipping off in one week. So which players are in the top 3 for both tickets and handle for NBA MVP?
1. Nikola Jokic (16.5% tickets, 16.2% handle)
Can Jokic become the seventh player ever to win 3 MVPs in a 4-year span 😮? He’d join LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11.6% tickets, 14.8% handle)
Maybe we should start referring to the Paul George trade as the Gilgeous-Alexander trade? SGA’s MVP odds are down from +2000 to +1600, while PG is up at +7000.
3. Anthony Edwards (9.7% tickets, 13.7% handle)
Edwards was viewed as an MVP sleeper 😴 when he first opened at +4000, but has since had his odds cut in half to +2000 after all of this action.
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