Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
📊 ACTION REPORT: Bettors gravitating toward NFC teams to win SB
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Best bets for Game 7 and NBA opening night
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: This LeBron prop is getting wild action
🔮 BEHOLD, THE FUTURE: An NBA title pick before the season tips
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and the true championship contenders are starting to emerge themselves. After five teams started off the season with Super Bowl odds lower than +1000, only three can now make that claim: the Chiefs, 49ers and Eagles.
But are bettors backing the top teams to win it all? Or has a longer shot drawn their attention 🤔? Here are the most popular Super Bowl bets by tickets and handle thus far.
Eagles (+550): 9.7% tickets (1st), 12.3% handle (1st)
Can’t fault bettors for backing the Eagles when they have two of the bigger edges in the sport: a nearly automatic short-yardage play and GM Howie Roseman.
Lions (+1500): 8.6% tickets (2nd), 8.0% handle (3rd)
Detroit has been a covering machine under Dan Campbell, posting a 28-13 (68.3%) mark 💰 against the spread during his tenure.
49ers (+475): 8.0% tickets (3rd), 12.1% handle (2nd)
Days spent as a Super Bowl favorite or co-favorite since the NFL season kicked off on Sept. 7—49ers: 32, Chiefs: 28, all other teams: 0.
Fanatics just turned Power 💪 Hour up a notch, as everyone is getting a bigger BONUS BET today!
Here at the Hustle, we share noteworthy betting action every single edition. So let’s turn it into a parlay and take advantage of the Power Hour surge (starting 6 p.m. ET).
The “Hustle’s People Parlay” makes its NBA debut for Lakers-Nuggets, and it will feature the three most popular player prop bets by tickets from your fellow bettors. Instead of trusting one person’s opinion, we’re rolling with the opinion of thousands 🧠.
Those top player props are Anthony Davis 30+ points, Nikola Jokic 10+ rebounds and LeBron James 8+ assists. The “Hustle’s People Parlay” pays out +1100 and you can find it already built on the betting app homepage up until tip.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein thinks the Phillies' bats will come through in Game 7, while Kazeem "Kaz" Famuyide and Zack Price are amped for NBA opening night.
THE PROP QUEEN
Diamondbacks at Phillies: Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (+100) [8:07 p.m. ET]
“The Phillies have scored 6.5 runs per home game this postseason. We’ve seen lineups hit average pitchers hard the second time around in this round, and I don’t trust Arizona SP Brandon Pfaadt on the road (5.04 ERA) either.”
THE NBA GURU
Suns' Kevin Durant Under 30.5 Points (-125) [10 p.m. ET]
"With Bradley Beal out and Devin Booker banged up, there will be more attention defending KD. It's also the first time he's played at Chase Center with Warriors fans in attendance since he left the team."
THE PRICE IS RIGHT
Lakers +5 (-110) at Nuggets [7:30 p.m. ET]
“Nuggets coach Mike Malone had some choice commentary following the Nuggets’ sweep of the Lakers last postseason. Revenge will be on LeBron James’ mind during the banner ceremony, and he’ll be ready for this one.”
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING TIP: 7:30 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: The defending champion Nuggets are tied for the third-lowest title odds this year at +550 and Nikola Jokic is the MVP favorite at +400. Denver went 31-20-1 against the spread at home 🏠 last season (including playoffs).
MAKING MOVES: Denver opened as a 5-point favorite over the Lakers, but this was first bet down to Nuggets -4.5. After the line rose to as high as Nuggets -5.5 earlier today, it’s back to where it started at Nuggets -5. Meanwhile, the total has crept up from 227.5 to 228.5.
TOP PROP:LeBron James’ points prop against the Nuggets was released at 25.5 back on Oct. 20. It was bet down to 24.5 later that day and stayed there until Monday night, when it dipped again to 23.5.
Incredibly, James under points has gotten more money than either team has received to cover the spread. Here is a full breakdown of the action on James’ points prop, with the sharpest 🪒 wagers coming earlier on.
All bets on James’ points prop: Over 67.9% tickets, Under 84.9% handle
When James’ points prop was at 24.5 or 25.5: Under 62.1% tickets, 98.1% handle
When James’ points prop is at 23.5: Over 93.5% tickets, 98.3% handle
Zack is so sharp on Futures/prop betting, he is feared by nearly every major sportsbook. We hired him to arm clients with the knowledge 🧠 they crave. Follow him on Twitter ➡️ zackonomics.
Golden State Warriors — NBA title winner (+1200)
Future Hall of Famers Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are back to chase their fifth championship. Golden State returns the same starting 5 from its last title, as Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney round out the group ready to go for the “gold” 🏆 again.
Acquiring fellow future HOFer Chris Paul only adds to the probability of another deep Warriors playoff run. Golden State also brings back defensive specialist and key bench cog Gary Payton II. I would be surprised if the Warriors aren’t contending come May and June.
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