Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
📈 MARKET MOVERS: Why a QB’s Heisman odds had big midweek move
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Two player props and a spread pick for TNF
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: The Broncos-Chiefs total has fallen 4 points
🤔 ASK THE TRADER: Weather is really impacting the NFL Week 6 slate
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
The Heisman spotlight is in Seattle this week, with top contenders in Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (+220, favorite) and Oregon’s Bo Nix (+500, third) squaring off. There is a more under-the-radar Heisman betting story 🔍, however, that has recently taken place.
When Heisman odds came back up on Monday after Week 6 was in the books, J.J. McCarthy’s odds were listed at +3000. Those were the highest odds for the Michigan QB at any point this season.
In the ensuing days, though, McCarthy has dropped considerably to +1000 😮. That now gives him the fifth-lowest Heisman odds, behind Penix Jr., Caleb Williams (+250), Nix and Dillon Gabriel (+700). For those curious, Michigan faces Indiana this Saturday and Michigan State next weekend.
To figure out the reason behind the huge shift, we called on trader Wyatt Satre.
ASK THE TRADER: We’ve started seeing good action on McCarthy last week and this week. He’s now the third-highest liability for Heisman behind Shedeur Sanders and Sam Hartman. Michigan having the second-lowest title odds and McCarthy still having showcase games against Penn State/Ohio State is what’s been driving the recent action.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein has an over and an under for two receiving props on TNF, while Max Meyer has decided to back a team that hasn't covered a single spread this season.
“Toney has only gone over 30.5 receiving yard in one game this season. The combination of heavy wins and the Chiefs being big favorites means we could see more short passes and runs.”
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
“When facing two defenses this season that have struggled defending pass-catching backs, Pacheco had 16 and 43 receiving yards. An RB has had at least 16+ receiving yards in every game against the Broncos.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Broncos +10.5 (-110) at Chiefs
“The Broncos defense is a disaster, but they have played Patrick Mahomes close in recent years. With strong winds tonight and the Chiefs’ aerial attack already not being as explosive as expected (T-14 in pass plays of 20+ yards), double digits is a lot of points.”
We are offering BOOSTED ODDS for ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER for tonight’s battle between the Broncos and Chiefs. Make sure to take advantage during Power 💪 Hour.
Isiah Pacheco (-150) and Travis Kelce (-145) anytime touchdown scorer are the most popular player props by tickets for TNF, and you’ll be able to get better odds on those two starting at 6 p.m. ET.
See the Promotions page on the app or website for full promotional Terms & Conditions.
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: Denver (0-4-1) is one of three teams that has not covered any spread this season, along with the Giants (0-5) and Panthers (0-4-1). Patrick Mahomes has won 22 of 24 games as a double-digit favorite, but only has a 10-13-1 mark against the spread in those contests.
MAKING MOVES: The Chiefs opened -10.5 and are currently -10.5 after dipping down to -10 a couple times and getting to -11 earlier today. The spread staying the same is particularly interesting considering that the total has dropped by 4 points from 51.5 to 47.5. You can thank potential rain ☔ and strong winds at Arrowhead Stadium tonight for that move.
TOP PROP: Bettors are not overloading on Travis Kelce props despite Taylor Swift 🎤 reportedly attending tonight’s affair. In fact, the most popular player prop by tickets and handle is Chiefs tailback Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (-150).
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
Welcome back to Total Thursday, where we’ll be looking at noteworthy totals (excluding TNF) every week.
Besides the TNF total that has dropped from 51.5 to 47.5, there are three other Week 6 totals that have shifted by at least 3.5 points. We brought in trader Jake Fisher to help explain 🕵️♂️ the big moves.
49ers at Browns (Opened 42, now 37.5) ASK THE TRADER: Light showers and wind gusts up around 30 MPH will make it difficult for these offenses to move the ball against such stellar defensive units. Reports suggest that if Deshaun Watson can’t go (shoulder), the Browns are likely to start former XFL QB PJ Walker. That’s why you’re seeing a rare combo of the spread going up by 4 points (49ers -3 to -7) despite the total going down by 4.5 points.
Vikings at Bears (Opened 48.5, now 44.5) ASK THE TRADER: Rain should lighten up in time for the 1 p.m. ET kick, but the Windy City 🍃 will live up to its name with strong cross winds (30 MPH). The Vikings have only played outdoors twice this season and are missing WR1 Justin Jefferson (hamstring). Expect Minnesota to pound the rock often behind Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 offensive line in terms of run blocking.
Cowboys at Chargers (Opened 47.5, now 51) ASK THE TRADER: The Chargers expect to get Austin Ekeler (ankle) back following their bye week and the Cowboys will want to respond after an ugly offensive showing in San Francisco. A key matchup will be the Bolts’ fourth-ranked offense ⚡ against the Cowboys’ sixth-ranked D in terms of yards per game. There hasn’t been much fourth-quarter scoring in the Cowboys’ three blowout wins, but the Chargers haven’t lost by more than one score in their last 14 games.
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