PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
Justin Fields was the hot MVP bet before the season, however a lackluster first two games have caused his odds to shift from +2000 to +6000. The Bears QB hasn’t been getting much action over that span either, as he’s tied for 14th with 2.0% of the tickets.
Instead, bettors have been eyeing 👀 a defensive player to win MVP ever since the season kicked off.
Micah Parsons is tops in MVP tickets at 17.2% and second in handle at 16.7% since Sept. 7 🤯, with his odds shifting from +10000 to +4000. Only Tua Tagovailoa (+700) has gotten more MVP handle during the season at 17.4%, and the Dolphins signal-caller ranks second in tickets over this timeframe at 9.1%.
Before the season started, Parsons ranked outside the top 20 in both MVP tickets (0.5%) and handle (0.2%). Overall, the Cowboys’ star pass-rusher is now eighth in MVP tickets (4.1%) and eighth in handle (5.4%).
Parsons is also the current Defensive Player of the Year favorite at +135, with T.J. Watt the next-closest at +400. Parsons has captured a leading 15.2% of tickets and 39.0% of handle for this market overall, including 24.2% of the tickets and 52.3% of the handle since Sept. 7.
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We promise we did not forget about MLB, as Ariel Epstein shares her two top plays from tonight's slate. Max Meyer kicks off a huge CFB Week 4 with a Big Ten home underdog.
THE PROP QUEEN
Orioles SP Dean Kremer Under 4.5 K’s (-115) [7:10 p.m. ET]
“Kremer ranks in the 11th percentile in chase % and has a 5.59 ERA against Cleveland in two previous starts. Righty starters have gone under their K prop in 55 of 91 outings this season when facing the Guardians.”
Mariners @ Rangers: Over 9.5 Runs (-105) [8:05 p.m. ET]
“The Rangers are averaging just under 6 runs in home games and got a big lineup boost with the returns of Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung. I don’t trust either Rangers SP Dane Dunning (4.27 home ERA, 3.38 road) or Mariners SP Bryce Miller (4.58 road ERA, 3.34 at home) in this spot.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Purdue First Half +3.5 (-115) vs. Wisconsin [7 p.m. ET]
“Under first-year HC Luke Fickell, Wisconsin has gotten off to sluggish starts in games. The Badgers were down by 15 at half to Washington State and were tied at half to Georgia Southern (and needed six turnovers to pull away). I think Hudson Card and the Purdue offense can make some noise against this defense.”
Justin Fields rushed for at least 60 yards in 9 of his final 10 games last season. Many bettors think he'll cross the 60-yard mark on the ground for the first time this season against the Chiefs.
Trying to figure out which player props to bet on for Week 3? Here are the ones that have been the most popular plays so far.
🏈 Top Passing Prop by Tickets: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-175) The Chargers-Vikings total is currently 54, which is the NFL’s highest this season.
🏈 Top Passing Prop by Handle: Deshaun Watson Under Passing Yards (now 230.5) The Browns need Watson’s arm more than ever this week, and not only because Nick Chubb went down. From Week 3 last season to Week 2 this season, the Titans allowed the fewest rushing yards over any 17-game stretch in the past 15 years 😮.
🏈 Top Rushing Prop by Tickets: Justin Fields Over Rushing Yards (now 60.5) The Bears have called a grand total of four designed runs for their QB this season. Maybe OC Luke Getsy should just try letting Fields be Fields.
🏈 Top Rushing Prop by Handle: Fields Over Rushing Yards This over has drawn more than five times the handle 💵 than any other rushing prop, as Fields’ rushing yards prop has swung from 50.5 to 60.5.
🏈 Top Receiving Prop by Tickets: Justin Jefferson Over Receiving Yards (now 100.5) Jefferson has Week 3’s highest receiving yards prop by a wide margin, with the next-closest one belonging to Miami’s Tyreek Hill at 85.5.
🏈 Top Receiving Prop by Handle: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 3.5 Receptions (+120) The rookie wideout is going up against a Panthers defense that allowed the Saints’ three top wideouts to all have at least four catches this past Monday.
🏈 Top Scoring Prop by Tickets: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (-115) Jefferson ranks second in targets without a TD (25), only behind rookie Puka Nacua (34).
🏈 Top Scoring Prop by Handle: Jefferson Anytime Touchdown The Chargers have given up the most passing yards per game and highest pass yards per attempt this season, as well as tied for the third-most passing TDs allowed. Good luck against the NFL’s best wideout 😅.
We’ve been sharing our favorite upset picks on weekends, but favorites deserve love ❤️ too. Here are senior editor Max Meyer’s top favorites to cover this weekend.
Oregon State -3 (-110) at Washington State [Sat., 7 p.m. ET]
Washington State has been a nice surprise so far this season, especially how explosive the aerial attack has been with QB Cam Ward and new OC Ben Arbuckle. But I think Oregon State is a tough matchup in a few areas.
One of the Cougars’ biggest questions coming into the season is how they would defend the run without much size up the middle. They haven’t really been tested much in that area (tied for fifth-fewest rush attempts allowed) since they’ve raced out to double-digit leads in the first half in all three games. Oregon State had Pro Football Focus’ best run-blocking grade in CFB in 2022, and four starters are back from that group. Not surprisingly, the Beavers 🦫 are averaging 6.3 YPC (7th in CFB) this campaign and have allowed 1 sack through 3 games.
Oregon State’s defense already has 12 sacks through 3 games (tied for eighth in CFB in sacks per game) after registering just 20 last season. Wazzu’s offense has been explosive, but it’s also been one-dimensional due to a lack of ground game thus far. If the Cougars aren’t mixing it up with more run plays, that’s an advantage for Oregon State’s pass rushers. This seems like a game that Oregon State takes over by being a bully in the trenches.
Browns -3.5 (+100) vs. Titans [Sun., 1 p.m. ET]
Yes, the Nick Chubb injury absolutely matters. But if there was any matchup where his absence won’t make as much of an impact, it’s this one. The Titans have been outstanding at stopping the run, but they gave up the most passing yards in 2022. The way to put up points on this team is by attacking the secondary. Deshaun Watson has not looked good to start this campaign, but at least he gets a much easier task here compared to his first two matchups.
On the flip side, there may not be a bigger mismatch on this entire Week 3 slate than the Browns’ defensive line against the Titans’ offensive line. Jim Schwartz has done a masterful job as Browns DC thus far and Cleveland has a deep group of pass rushers. Ryan Tannehill wilted against the Saints’ pressure in Week 1, including throwing three interceptions. Cleveland’s defense should be able to feast 🍴 as well.
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