Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
🔮 BEHOLD, THE FUTURE: This QB’s Heisman odds will move soon
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: One expert is fading Christian McCaffrey
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: Are bettors laying double digits with 49ers?
🤔 ASK THE TRADER: One Week 3 game has highest total of season
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
With such a massive Week 4 slate coming up, there is no doubt that the Heisman futures market is about to have a major shake-up. But who should you be buying before a big shift? Senior editor Max Meyer has his pick for the player that is a solid investment right now.
A lot of people have been in on Sam Hartman recently ahead of the Notre Dame quarterback’s showdown against Ohio State. Since Heisman odds went back up this past Sunday, Hartman’s price has swung from +2000 to +800. I understand the thinking behind the action, I just don’t think the Irish ☘️ upset the Buckeyes. That potential value is also zapped now that Hartman is already down to +800.
There is another QB further down the board that will get similar national exposure and is a massive favorite to win his Week 4 contest. That’s Oregon signal-caller Bo Nix, whose Heisman odds have actually worsened from +1600 to +2200 since the start of the season. Yet, his numbers have been excellent – 77.6% completion rate, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also has a nice early victory under his belt after a big performance at Texas Tech.
Now Nix gets to face Colorado, and he will be the benefactor of the Buffaloes’ hype train. The Ducks 🦆 are up to 21-point home favorites and Colorado will be without two-way superstar Travis Hunter. Colorado’s defense has already shown some cracks against TCU and Colorado State, and now it faces an Oregon offense that has been absolutely lethal at Autzen Stadium.
Even with Colorado as a sizable underdog, Oregon will get major national headlines if the Ducks beat up the Buffaloes to give them their first loss of the season. Not only would Nix get a nice Heisman bump, but he also has several more opportunities later in the season to pick up signature wins. I bet you’ll see Nix at a lower Heisman price than +2200 going into a mid-October matchup at Washington.
Fanatics just made Power 💪 Hour even bigger, as everyone’s DAILYSGP BONUS BET today is doubled!
Here at the Hustle, we share noteworthy betting action we’ve seen every single edition. So let’s turn it into a parlay and take advantage of the Power Hour surge.
That’s right, we’re unveiling the “Hustle’s People Parlay” every TNF and MNF. It will feature the game’s three most popular player prop bets by handle from your fellow bettors. Instead of trusting one person’s opinion, we’re rolling with the opinion of thousands 🧠.
For tonight’s clash between the Giants and 49ers, the most popular player props by handle are Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown, McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards and Darren Waller 50+ receiving yards. The inaugural “Hustle’s People Parlay” pays out +240 and you can find it already built on the betting app homepage up until kickoff.
EXPERT PICKS
Ryan Leaf has no issue rolling with a big favorite on TNF, while two-sport star Ariel Epstein has a pair of player props.
THE SIGNAL-CALLER
49ers -10.5 (-110) vs. Giants [8:15 p.m. ET]
“While 10.5 points is a lot, I just can’t get past the fact that there’s no Saquon Barkley and now the 49ers have Nick Bosa going up against a Giants O-line without Andrew Thomas. I don’t see how this stays close.”
THE PROP QUEEN
Christian McCaffrey Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
“McCaffrey has gone under 30.5 receiving yards in both games this season. The Giants allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (23.4) to RBs last season. With McCaffrey leading the NFL in touches, Kyle Shanahan could utilize Elijah Mitchell more on a short week.”
Pirates SP Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 K’s (-140) [7:40 p.m. ET]
“Oviedo punched out eight Cubs in his last start at Wrigley. He’s had 5 and 6 strikeouts in his last two road starts against high K-rate teams. The Cubs average 5.2 K’s per game against righty starters.”
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: The 49ers have won 12 consecutive regular-season games and eight of those have come by at least 13 points (including 6 of 7 at home) 😮. The Giants’ Super Bowl odds have already risen from +4500 at the start of the season to +9000 now.
MAKING MOVES: San Francisco opened as a 10-point favorite and currently resides at -10.5. While the spread has risen by just half a point with all the Giants’ injuries, the total has dropped by 1.5 points from 45 to 43.5.
TOP PROP:Christian McCaffrey is -250 to reach the end zone in this game, the shortest anytime touchdown odds for any player this season. That heavy price isn’t scaring off bettors, as it’s the most popular player prop by tickets and handle. McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in his last eight regular-season contests with the 49ers.
STRANGE BUT TRUE: The 49ers defense/special teams have lower odds to score a touchdown (+425) tonight than any Giants wide receiver 🤯.
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
Welcome back to Total Thursday, where we’ll be looking at a noteworthy total bet (excluding TNF) every week.
One Week 3 game currently has the highest total of the season, as Chargers-Vikings sits at 54 after opening at 51.5. The season opener between the Lions and Chiefs had the highest closing total so far this campaign at 53.
Since the start of last season, there have been four totals that have closed at 54 or higher. Not only did all four of them go under, but three of them didn’t even reach 45 points 😬.
So far, 68.9% of the tickets for this total are on the over but 67.2% of the handle is actually on the under. We brought in trader Will Radice to get his view 🕵️♂️ on why this total is so high and the action he’s been seeing on it.
The market bet this total up to 54 not only because of the offensive firepower but also the fact they’re going up against struggling defenses. The Vikings are third in yards per play at 6.3 and the Chargers are sixth at 5.5. However, the Chargers are dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.9. Minnesota has been blitzing a lot under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, but the pressure rate on those blitzes hasn’t been very high. So while it’s rare to see a total of 54 nowadays in the NFL, but this environment warrants it. Yet, while we saw lots of initial action on over 51.5, the majority of the action has been on under 54.5 and 54 since we bumped the number up.
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Max Meyer
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