The PointsBet Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
MARQUEE MATCHUP: The latest insights for tonight’s Finals clash
SGP ON THE HOUSE: Game 2 just got even better
EXPERT PICKS: What is Kaz rolling with?
ASK THE TRADER: Some interesting developments on the total
THE LINES: Heat (+280 ML) @ Nuggets -8.5 (-350 ML); Total 216
TIP-OFF: 8 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: How important is Game 2 for the Heat? Only five teams have won the NBA Finals after going down 2-0: the 2021 Bucks, 2016 Cavaliers, 2006 Heat, 1977 Trail Blazers and 1969 Celtics. Nikola Jokic joined Jason Kidd as the only players to record a triple double in their NBA Finals debut.
TRENDING: The Nuggets haven’t lost at home since March 30th, and have gone 8-3 against the number since then. Miami’s last five games have all gone under the total, while the under has hit in five of Denver’s last seven contests.
MAKING MOVES: After Game 1 closed at Nuggets -8.5, Denver opened as a 9.5-point favorite. That line only lasted for a few minutes, though, as it was quickly bet down to Nuggets -9 and afterwards -8.5.
FEELING THE HEAT: One of the biggest Game 2 bets so far is on Miami… to win outright. A New York client placed $2,000.04 on Heat moneyline +400 for a potential win of $8,000.16.
Check your account for a Bonus Bet during today’s Power Hour, which starts at 6 p.m. ET. Use it on a Same Game Parlay for Game 2!
We hit our +500 SGP for Game 1. Kazeem “Kaz” Famuyide aims to keep the streak going with a 5-leg SGP at +850:
Nuggets moneyline (-350)
Max Strus over 1.5 made threes (-190)
Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-165)
Jamal Murray over 6.5 assists (-120)
Nikola Jokic over 24.5 rebounds plus assists (+100)
The credit is good for all states but NY. See Promotions page in the PointsBet app or website for full promotional Terms & Conditions.
EXPERT PICKS
Hoops guru Kazeem "Kaz" Famuyide is sharing his spread pick and top player prop. If you want even more basketball, Max Meyer has his best bet for today's WNBA slate.
THE NBA HOST
Nuggets -8.5 (-110) vs. Heat [8 p.m. ET]
“The Nuggets just seem bigger, faster and stronger. As great as Erik Spoelstra is, Nikola Jokic had an answer for everything in Game 1. I think Denver wins handedly.”
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (-165)
“I think he’s going to continue to get open outside looks, and nobody on the Heat has the size to contest his jumpers.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Dallas Wings +7.5 (-115) @ Connecticut Sun [1 p.m. ET]
"The Sun play at the second-slowest pace in the WNBA, but I think they'll have trouble with the high-flying Wings. The dynamic duo of Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally will keep this game close."
Clients haven't been afraid to back this Game 2 over despite the Heat's last five games going under the total.
The spread is currently the same as the Game 1 closing number, though one other straight market has actually seen a noticeable adjustment for Game 2. Let’s dive into it, with trader Spencer Fitzroy providing us additional context.
• Game 1 closing total: 218.5
• Game 2 opening total: 212.5
• Game 2 current total: 216
• Game 2 total insights: Over 52.8% tickets, 65.0% handle
Why did the Game 2 total open six points lower than what Game 1 closed at?
Fitzroy: “Tempo was definitely the biggest determining factor in total line-setting. Both teams were in the bottom 5 for possessions per minute during the regular season, and don’t seem to have wavered from that gameplan. But it only took one minute from opening for sharp bettors to consider that 212.5 an overreaction and move the line ⬆️ to 214.5.”
Max Strus and Caleb Martin combined to shoot 5.9% (1/17) in Game 1, the worst percentage by two starting teammates in over 50 years.
Which Game 2 player props have gotten the most action thus far? Let’s take a look.
MOST TICKETS: Nikola Jokic ⬆️ Over Assists
Jokic’s assists prop was originally positioned at 10.5, however it’s been bet up to 11.5 (over +100/under -130). Among all bets on this Jokic prop, 89.1% of the tickets and 97.4% of the handle are on the over.
The Nuggets star big man dished out 14 dimes in Game 1, and has recorded at least 12 assists in six of his last seven games.
MOST HANDLE: Max Strus Over ⬆️ Made Three Pointers
This prop very briefly reached 2.5, but it’s mostly resided at 1.5 with the over currently priced at -190 (the under is +145). Strus’ over has racked up 81.3% of the tickets, along with 68.4% of the handle.
Many clients are thinking this will be a bounce-back game for Miami’s sharpshooter. Strus put up a bagel in Game 1, and missed all nine of his attempts from beyond the arc. Before Thursday night, he had knocked down at least two threes in 11 of his past 14 contests.
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Max Meyer
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