Lakers @ Warriors (-7); Total 225.5

TIP-OFF: 10 p.m. ET

KEY FACTS: The Warriors, facing a do-or-die Game 5, are 7-2 in elimination games under Steve Kerr. LeBron James is 40-12 in closeout games — the best record by any player in NBA postseason history (min. 25 games).

TRENDING: Golden State is 33-12 straight up following a playoff loss since 2013, good for the NBA’s highest winning percentage (.733) in that span. The Lakers have had the Warriors’ number this season, as L.A. is 6-2 straight up and ATS ✅ against Golden State.

MAKING MOVES: The Warriors opened as 6-point favorites in Game 5. After reaching as high as -7.5 this morning, the line has firmed to -7. Meanwhile, the total has decreased from 226.5 to 225.5.

TOP PROP: After dropping 55 points in the first two games, Klay Thompson put up 15 in Game 3 and a mere 9 in Game 4. Many clients think Klay will regain his stroke, as over ⬆️ 22.5 points is the player prop receiving the most handle.

LOPSIDED ACTION: Game 4 hero Lonnie Walker IV has seen his points prop jump from 7.5 to 8.5. That over ⬆️ has drawn a whopping 96% of the handle. May the IV be with you, clients. For moneyline, the Warriors (-325) have nabbed 91% of the handle.

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For today’s Bonus Bet, we’re eyeing an NBA SGP (+425) from Heat-Knicks [7:30 p.m. ET].

• Heat +3.5 (-110): Miami is 8-1 against the number this postseason, including covering in seven straight.
• Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130): Brunson has been hit-or-miss (mostly miss) from downtown in the playoffs, shooting just 28.3% from three and going under this prop in seven of nine games.
• Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-105): Bam is averaging 10.3 rebounds this series, including 25 in the last two games.

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The Bucks were the NBA championship favorites entering the postseason. Then the Celtics took over with Milwaukee’s struggles against the Heat in the first round. Boston held firm control of the top spot from April 23 up until last night.

The 76ers’ major upset catapulted them from +900 yesterday to +300 now, with Boston swinging from +150 to +400. Philly is joined by Denver, who made a move of its own from +450 to +300 after a big Game 5 victory.

So what went into the decision to have the Nuggets and 76ers as co-favorites? We discussed with Head of Trading Kevin Lawler.

ASK THE TRADER: “The Sixers are -180 to close out Boston, and if they do that, they’ll be strong favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals and will probably be slight favorites in the NBA Finals with home court. The Nuggets are -500 to close out Phoenix, and would be favorites regardless of who they face with home-court advantage in the next round. Future home-court advantage is why those two teams are just ahead of the Lakers, even with Los Angeles up an extra game in its series.”

When was the last time a PGA Tour favorite was as low as Scottie Scheffler, who is +350 for the AT&T Byron Nelson? Actually, just a couple weeks ago — Jon Rahm was an even shorter +260 before the Mexican Open. Let’s look at the top contenders, one week before the PGA Championship:

⛳ Scheffler (+350): The world No. 2 has eight top-10 finishes and two wins in his last 11 events.

⛳ Tyrrell Hatton (+1200): Hatton is scorching hot after shooting a combined 22-under in his last two events.

⛳ Tom Kim (+1600): The Dallas resident could get a boost from playing in his home state. He is overdue for a big performance.

⛳ Jason Day (+1600): Day won this event in 2010 and has something to prove after barely missing the cut last week.

⛳ Hideki Matsuyama (+2000): Matsuyama finished T3 here last year and looks like a strong contender in a weaker field.

⛳ K.H. Lee (+2500): The two-time defending champ owns this event, including setting the course tournament record last year (-26).

Zack is so sharp on Futures/prop betting, he is feared by nearly every major sportsbook. We hired him to arm clients with the knowledge they crave. Follow him on Twitter @zackonomics.

Tom Kim – Top 20 (-121) @ AT&T Byron Nelson

“Kim plays phenomenal at the less-demanding tracks, and TPC Craig Ranch is the third-easiest on TOUR. The most exciting young player on tour is also in good form with a 16th place at the Masters along with 7th at the Zurich and 23rd last week at Wells Fargo. He’ll be able to get aggressive this week and should hang around the top of the pack.”