The PointsBet Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
ACTION REPORT: Action pouring in on the Bucs — to stumble
EXPERT PICKS: MLB and WNBA underdogs have caught our eye
BACK TO SCHOOL: Georgia, Alabama or LSU to win the SEC?
ASK THE TRADER: Context behind a big preseason spread move
We are officially less than a month away from the NFL regular season kicking off. To help speed ???? up things during the home stretch, we have our daily NFL betting reports. We’ll be highlighting the betting action for individual teams in four Hustles per week, sorting them out by division.
We finish up the NFC South today with the Buccaneers.
SUPER BOWL Odds: Opened +4000 (T-12th), currently +10000 (30th)
Action: 0.5% tickets (30th), 0.2% handle (30th)
WIN TOTAL Odds: 6.5 (Over +120, Under -145)
Action: UNDER 79% tickets, UNDER 98% handle *The Bucs have had the most lopsided action among all NFL win totals, with Cowboys 9.5 (over 91%) the only other one above 90% handle to one side.
DIVISION Odds: Opened +375 (4th), currently +800 (4th)
Action: 5.0% tickets (4th), 1.1% handle (4th)
PERUSING THE PLAYERS
???? Former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield is now with his fourth team and is in a battle with Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback gig. Mayfield’s NFL MVP odds opened at +17500 and are down to +12000, and only one bettor has backed him to win the award. With that sole wager, the Buccaneers are tied with the Texans and Commanders for the fewest MVP bets among all players on the team ????.
???? There is some betting optimism in Tampa Bay, though. The Buccaneers took Calijah Kancey with the No. 19 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the defensive lineman has gotten attention for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Kancey has racked up 10.4% of the handle, the third-highest mark for DROY. His odds originally swung from +2500 to +1600 but were moved back to +2500 after he suffered a calf strain last week.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein is rolling with a road underdog that has cashed often this MLB season, while Max Meyer is backing a WNBA home underdog that he feels is undervalued.
THE PROP QUEEN
Nationals Run Line +1.5 (+110) @ Phillies [6:40 p.m. ET]
“The Nationals are the second-most profitable road team on the run line this season. Washington is really good at putting balls in play, which bodes well against a Phillies squad that ranks 23rd in defensive runs saved.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Indiana Fever +2.5 (-115) vs. Minnesota Lynx [7 p.m. ET]
“The Fever were a disaster in NaLyssa Smith’s month-long injury absence, but she returned last game on a minutes restriction. Smith really helps take opposing defenses’ attention away from Aliyah Boston. The Fever already beat the Lynx in Minnesota this season and kept it tight in their other matchup.”
PointsBet is offering NO JUICE® ODDS for the spreads and totals for tonight’s NFL preseason games: Texans-Patriots and Vikings-Seahawks. Make sure to take advantage during tonight’s Power ???? Hour, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
See Promotions page in the PointsBet app or website for full promotional Terms & Conditions.
The best news when the calendar ????️ flips to August? That there will be live college football games on our screens later this month. After going through win totals and Heisman picks for each Power 5 conference, it’s now time to give out picks for conference futures.
Former NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf shares his best bet for conference winner, while senior editor Max Meyer provides a sleeper ???? (+1000 odds or longer) that can make some noise. Today they dive into the SEC.
LEAF’S PICK TO WIN: Georgia (-110)
There is a bit of skepticism with a new offensive coordinator and quarterback combo, but the Bulldogs’ schedule sets them up for a return to the SEC Championship Game. They’re projected to be double-digit favorites in every game this regular season except for on the road at Tennessee. If they find their quarterback along the way, a three-peat ???? is easily in reach.
MEYER’S SLEEPER: Kentucky (+10000)
This is the trickiest conference for potential sleepers with Georgia, Alabama and LSU at the top. The SEC West is the toughest division in the nation, so let’s look at the SEC East.
Even with an NFL prospect like Will Levis under center last season, Kentucky averaged an SEC-worst 20.4 points per game ????. But there are several reasons for more optimism this time around. The Wildcats landed former NC State signal-caller Devin Leary, who threw for 35 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions back in 2021. Liam Coen is back as Kentucky offensive coordinator after a 1-year stint at the same position in the NFL with the Rams. The offensive line was a disaster last season (allowed 3.62 sacks per game, fifth-worst in CFB), however I’m expecting improvement there with some key transfer adds and more experience up front.
The defense has been fundamentally sound under defensive coordinator Brad White, and the Wildcats have the pieces to be very solid on that side of the ball once again. If an inconsistent Joe Milton doesn’t take a step forward as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, I can envision Kentucky as the second-best team in the SEC East.
It’s the first day of multiple NFL games since January, with Texans at Patriots kicking off at 7 p.m. ET followed by Vikings at Seahawks at 10 p.m. ET.
The craziest odds shift for tonight’s slate is the spread between the Texans and Patriots. Houston opened as a 2-point road favorite, went up to as high as -4.5 and is now settled at -3.5 ????. We asked NFL trader Ethan Useloff to peel back the curtain and explain the key shift.
USELOFF: “Bill Belichick said that he will give his more inexperienced guys more playing time this game, including at quarterback. Bailey Zappe is the presumed starter under center, followed by greener signal-callers Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham. The Texans are starting No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud at QB, with Davis Mills expected to get plenty of time as well. But going from 2 to 4.5 off Belichick’s comments was seen as too far of an adjustment by the market, so we saw some sharper ???? action on the Patriots at 4.5 to pull back in this number by a point.”
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Max Meyer
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