PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: This is the only Week 1 matchup that pits together teams with Super Bowl odds lower than +1500 (Bills +900, Jets +1300). The Jets were double-digit underdogs in both meetings against the Bills last season, but covered twice and even pulled off an outright upset in one with Zach Wilson under center 😂.
NEW QB IN TOWN: All eyes 👀 are on Aaron Rodgers for his Jets debut. Rodgers has nearly 24 times more bets on his over for 1.5 passing touchdowns (now +110) compared to Josh Allen’s over for 1.5 passing touchdowns (now +100).
MAKING MOVES: The Bills opened as 1-point favorites, reached as high as -2.5 and are currently settled in at -2. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 47 to 44.5 despite 64.6% of the tickets and 65.2% of the handle coming in on the over.
TOP PROP: The most popular player prop bet by both tickets and handle is Garrett Wilson to score a touchdown. He has the third-lowest odds to find the end zone tonight at +155, only behind teammate Dalvin Cook at +120 and opposing pass-catcher Stefon Diggs at +135.
Ryan Leaf is taking the points in tonight's gridiron clash, while two-sport star Ariel Epstein has best bets for both NFL and MLB.
Jets +2 (-110) vs. Bills [8:15 p.m. ET]
“Historically, home underdogs in Week 1 division games have been very strong bets. This is just such a massive game for the Jets, they have to get off to a strong start or else this could blow up immediately.”
THE PROP QUEEN
Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-125)
“Allen went under 1.5 passing TDs in four of his five games against top-10 red-zone pass defenses last season. The Jets allowed the second-fewest passing TDs in 2022.”
Rockies Run Line +1.5 (+100) vs. Cubs [8:40 p.m. ET]
“The Rockies have some hot bats, with Nolan Jones, Elehuris Montero and Charlie Blackmon all above .300 this month. It’s Jordan Wicks’ first career start at Coors Field and opponents are hitting .341 on his non-changeup pitches.”
The NFL MVP race 🏃 has had a crazy start, as we’ve already seen the favorite switch and a new entry in the top 3. We brought in football trader Jake Fisher to discuss the reasoning behind the key recent odds shifts in this market.
Why is Josh Allen the new MVP favorite despite not even playing yet? ASK THE TRADER: There weren’t that many top quarterbacks that had strong Week 1 performances, so Allen has a golden opportunity to kick-start his MVP campaign. He suffered a partially torn UCL against the Jets last season and finished second in EPA despite not quite looking like himself down the stretch. Allen can show the football world tonight that he is fully back.
Why was Tua Tagovailoa (+2000 to +850) the most aggressive mover after Sunday?
ASK THE TRADER: Tua had a massive game with 466 yards and 3 touchdowns 😮 to go along with a clutch game-winning drive. He was in the MVP race last season before his season became plagued by injury. He’s clearly shown that he can be incredibly effective in Mike McDaniel’s scheme and his elite receiving corps will only help his numbers.
Why wasn’t there a bigger adjustment for Justin Fields (+1500 to +2000)?
ASK THE TRADER: Fields did not look good against the Packers, but he was also hindered by poor offensive line play and a negative game script. He remains our biggest liability to win MVP, so we didn’t want to shift his price too much after one game.
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