KEY FACTS: The Steelers rank last in yards per pass attempt (5.1), and Mitch Trubisky didn’t pass 200 yards against the Bengals or Patriots. (Hence those pro-Pickett ‘Kenny!’ ‘Kenny!’ chants Sunday.) The Browns rush the ball with fierce dedication, ranking third in frequency (54.7% of snaps) and fourth in yards per tote (5.3).
TRENDING: Cleveland has failed to cover six straight as a home fav. The Steelers have covered four straight following an ATS loss and are 20-7-2 ATS as a ‘dog since 2018.
Jay crushed his MNF picks, going 2-for-2 on Under props. Whose selections on TNF and a college game will be sharpest -- Jay Croucher, Ryan Leaf or Teddy G?
Browns/Steelers Over 38.5 (-107)
“Neither offense inspires confidence, but neither defense should either. The Browns have seen both of their games total 50+. The Cleveland rushing offense is the best in the league and will move the ball against the Steelers. The defense just gave up 31 to Joe Flacco.”
NC State -38.5 vs. UConn
“The Huskies just got flattened by Michigan, 59-0. This line could climb to -40.”
THE BIG NAME
Browns -4.5 vs. Steelers (-107)
“I think Cleveland bounces back (after the loss to the Jets). Pittsburgh will struggle without T.J. Watt or any semblance of explosive plays on offense.”
Washington St +6.5 vs. Oregon (-107)
“I’m not being biased to my alma mater! The Washington State defense is really good, and DB Armani Marsh reminds me of Tyrann Mathieu. And Oregon often struggles when going to Pullman.”
Kareem Hunt Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
“With high winds expected, Cleveland will ground-n-pound with its two stud backs. Hunt has fresh legs on a short week.”
Iowa-Rutgers Under 34 (-107)
“A novelty play here. This is the lowest Total in a college game in the last seven years. So naturally, we’re going under and hoping for more punts than points.”
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KEY FACTS: The Hokies are nasty against the run, allowing 1.5 yards per carry. West Virginia has 10 rushing TDs in three games, and its 5.6-yard rushing average is 23rd nationally. West Virginia won the Black Diamond (i.e. coal) Trophy last year, holding on for a 27-21 victory.
TRENDING: The favorite is 4-1 in the teams’ last five meetings. Va Tech has covered four straight following an ATS loss.
INSIGHT: We’re seeing the phenomenon of Reverse Line Movement. Despite more being wagered on the Over, market forces have shrunk the Total.
CASE FOR (boosted to +100, see below): Judge is set at RBIs and homers (leads the AL by 23!) and is decimal points ahead of Xander Bogaerts at .317. Judge is scorching at the plate, hitting .500 (22-for-44) since Sept. 8. The Yankees are not in a pennant race and could shut him down to protect a lead.
CASE AGAINST: With 14 games to play, the Yanks face 10 AL East foes. The familiarity could give the pitchers an edge.
CASE FOR (-300): He needs two blasts with 12 games to play. The Cardinals are locked into the playoffs, so they can afford to start Pujols as often as he likes. He broke up Blake Snell’s no-hitter Wednesday night.
CASE AGAINST: Will Pujols be pressing? Will opponents pitch around him? Final six games are against the dreadful Pirates, but Pittsburgh hurlers don’t yield a ton of bombs (1.03 per game).
KEY FACTS: Minnesota has been dominant in the Clown College segment of its schedule, ranking 2nd nationally in yards per game (554.7) AND yards allowed (170.3). Now the Gophers step up in weight class against a wounded group that got embarrassed out west (503 yards allowed to Washington).
TRENDING: MSU has won five straight in the series dating to 2010. The Gophers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games, while the Spartans (8-1-2 ATS in last 11) are strong at home.
CASE FOR THE DOG: The Gophers have played no one, and Spartans coach Mel Tucker has his team’s full attention.
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THURSDAY NIGHT INTEL
Super Bowl MVP Kurt Warner examines the TNF matchup and provides insight on being a stop-gap QB. Jay Croucher of NBC Sports gives betting advice for Steelers-Browns. Ryan reveals his Week 3 bets. Listen here.
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Hustle Boost: Aaron Judge to win the Triple Crown … a big boost -200 –> +100 (not avail in NY)
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