The PointsBet Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
ACTION REPORT: Anthony Richardson’s OROY odds on the move
EXPERT PICKS: Who are Ariel Epstein’s two HR Derby picks?
️♂️ POWER RANKINGS: Top HR Derby contenders along with insights
BEHOLD, THE FUTURE: Zack Price is already invested in NBA ROY
It’s the slow season of the sports calendar, but at least we’re closer to this NFL campaign kicking off. To help speed up the timeline, we have our daily NFL betting reports. We’ll be highlighting the betting action for individual teams in four Hustles per week, sorting them out by division.
So let’s welcome AFC South week by starting with the Colts.
SUPER BOWL Odds: Opened +8000 (T-26th), currently +8000 (T-24th)
Action: 0.8% tickets (23rd), 0.5% handle (25th) *Indy’s Super Bowl odds got to as long as +15000 from March 15 to 28
WIN TOTAL Odds: 6.5 (Over -140, Under +115)
Action: OVER 71% tickets, OVER 91% handle
DIVISION Odds: Opened +550 (3rd), currently +525 (3rd)
Action: 21.2% tickets (3rd), 14.8% handle (3rd)
PERUSING THE PLAYERS
Anthony Richardson opened at +750 for Offensive Rookie of the Year, however the No. 4 overall pick has seen recent momentum in this market. He’s swung from +700 to +600 in the past week, giving him the third-lowest OROY odds. Richardson has attracted the most tickets for the award at 16.0%, and ranks fourth in handle at 10.1%.
Going further on Richardson, only one rookie has ever been named NFL MVP: Jim Brown in 1957. Indy’s dual-threat quarterback has seen his MVP odds shift from a +50000 opener to currently residing at +15000. Richardson has captured 1.1% of the tickets (tied for 16th) and has drawn over four times more handle than every other rookie combined for MVP.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein is swinging for the fences with two Home Run Derby picks tonight, while Daniel Parisi already has us prepped for tomorrow's Wimbledon action.
THE PROP QUEEN
Home Run Derby Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400) [8 p.m. ET]
"Vladdy put on a show in last HR Derby in 2019, but got tired in the end after having to partake in multiple tiebreaks. I'm worried about Pete Alonso's health with his bone bruise and wrist sprain."
HR Derby Winner: Randy Arozarena (+1000)
"Arozarena has an easy swing and he won't get tired as easily. He also has the easier half of the bracket, avoiding three of the four top favorites (Alonso, Vladdy and Julio Rodriguez)."
THE AGREEABLE ACE
Jannik Sinner vs. Roman Safiullin: Sinner 3-0 set betting (+105) [Tuesday, 9:30 a.m. ET]
"Sinner has dropped just 1 set this tournament whilst his Russian opponent has hit his ceiling at the All England Club. The lights shine ever brighter on Court 1."
Andrey Rublev vs. Novak Djokovic: Over 32.5 Games (-125) [Tuesday, 10 a.m. ET]
"Novak has played in 5 tiebreakers already this tournament. Rublev has the toolkit to pinch a set and send this match to a long 4."
PointsBet is offering BOOSTED ODDS for OUTRIGHT WINNER for tonight’s Home Run Derby. Don’t forget to check back in and pick your slugger during our Daily Power Hour, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
See the Promotions page in the PointsBet app or website for full promotional Terms & Conditions.
These eight sluggers put the POWER in power rankings. Here are their odds to win tonight’s Home Run Derby.
⚾ Pete Alonso (+300): After winning in 2019 and 2021, Alonso is aiming to tie Ken Griffey Jr.’s record with a third Derby crown.
⚾ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400): Now four years older and wiser, Guerrero returns to the stage for the first time since losing to Alonso in the final round in 2019.
⚾ Luis Robert Jr. (+425): Robert’s unlocked his power stroke this year with more homers (26) than his last two seasons combined (25).
⚾ Julio Rodriguez (+475): J-Rod has home-field advantage and is out for revenge after losing last year’s Derby by one dinger to Juan Soto in the finals.
⚾ Adolis Garcia (+600): The MLB’s RBI leader is plenty familiar with T-Mobile Park, where he has three homers and six doubles in 22 career games there.
⚾ Mookie Betts (+900): Betts packs remarkable power into his small frame and is on pace to set a new career-high in homers for the second year in a row.
⚾ Randy Arozarena (+1000): Arozarena has as much raw strength as anyone and tends to rise to the occasion based on his stellar playoff track record.
⚾ Adley Rutschman (+1800): Rutschman boasts impressive pop for a catcher and should have plenty of stamina thanks to his demanding position.
Zack is so sharp on Futures/prop betting, he is feared by nearly every major sportsbook. We hired him to arm clients with the knowledge they crave. Follow him on Twitter @zackonomics.
Chet Holmgren — NBA Rookie of the Year (+375)
“Chet dribbles like a guard, defends like a center, hits the 3 with ease and has the fundamentals of a veteran. With his 7’6″ wingspan I wouldn’t be surprised if the ex-Gonzaga star leads the NBA in blocked shots as a rookie.”
EDITOR’S NOTE: Holmgren has already moved from +500 to +375 over the past week for NBA Rookie of the Year. So far, the Thunder big man has received the most tickets (41.9%) and second-most handle (37.1%, only behind Scoot Henderson 42.1%) to win the award.
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