KEY FACTS: These unblemished teams rank in the NFL’s top three in yards per game, joining Philly. Buffalo has beaten the seven straight times, averaging nearly 37 points. Miami’s Tyreek Hill (19 grabs, 213 yards) is on pace for an outrageous 1,700 yards on 152 catches.
TRENDING: Not only are the Bills 14-7 straight up since the start of 2021, all 14 wins have been by 12+ points. The Dolphins are also hot – 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12.
INSIGHT: The line soared from 4.5 to 6 and then retreated because of injuries to Bills starting DBs Micah Hyde and Dane Jackson.
Jay Croucher and Ryan Leaf crushed their Thursday Night Football picks. Can they do it again Sunday?
Atlanta ML (+100) over Seattle
“The Falcons have been surprisingly competent and have upside with TE Kyle Pitts and CB A.J. Terrell. The Seahawks needed two goal-line fumbles and a missed field goal to sneak past Denver before getting blown out by San Fran.”
Russell Wilson Over 235.5 passing yards (-115)
“Don’t expect the Broncos to run with much success against a stout Niners front. Denver will need to throw.”
THE BIG NAME
Josh Allen Over 275.5 passing yards (-115)
“He is as locked in as any QB in the NFL right now with his ability to make plays inside and outside the pocket. He had almost 300 yards four minutes into the second half against Tennessee.”
SF -1.5 vs. Denver (-107)
“It’s ironic that you feel better about a team that has lost its starting quarterback. Jimmy G just wins.”
Rationale: The public sees Kyler Murray scrambling north/south/east/west and thinks: Points! But Arizona has scored just seven in the first half this season, and the Rams rank 26th in yards per game (290.0).
2. Texans (+3) @ Bears
Pros: HOU 67% handle
Joes: CHI 53% tickets
Rationale: Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six. The Bears somehow manage to play down to their competition, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven against losing teams.
3. Bills @ Dolphins, Total 53
Pros: Under 67% handle
Joes: Over 55% tickets
Rationale: Even with Buffalo’s ‘D’ riddled with injuries, the sharps do not envision Tua tangoing away from Buffalo’s ferocious pass rush.
4. Eagles @ Commanders, Total 47.5
Pros: Under 72% handle
Joes: Over 57% tickets
Rationale: Two defenses in the bottom half of the league against the run should result in more rushes. More rushes equals fewer plays and fewer points.
5. Saints @ Panthers, Total 41
Pros: Under 62% handle
Joes: Over 61% tickets
Rationale: Carolina has one of the league’s lamest offenses and the under is 7-2 in the Saints’ last 9 games.
KEY FACTS: Jimmy G is 35-16 as a starter but has taken it on the chin against Russell Wilson’s teams (1-6). Wilson, meanwhile, is absorbing shots on social media from former Seahawks teammates over his slow start (58.9% completions, 2 TD passes) in Denver.
TRENDING: The Broncos were favored when the line opened. But the public is down on Wilson and first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett, whose team has been flagged 25 times in two games.
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