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June 12, 2023

THE LINES: Heat @ Nuggets (-8.5); Total 209.5

TIP-OFF: 8:30 p.m. ET

KEY FACTS: The Nuggets are one win from clinching their first championship in franchise history, and they can do it at home where they are 9-1 in the playoffs and 43-8 this season. The Heat have been outscored by 36 points this series and will try to cool off a Denver offense that leads all playoff teams in points per possession, true shooting percentage and turnover rate.

TRENDING: The Under is 7-1 in the Heat’s last eight games as their offense has sputtered, averaging just 99.4 PPG. The Nuggets are now 12-2 straight up in their last 14 games against the Heat (including 5-1 this season) and are 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) over their last 10.

MAKING MOVES: The spread was Nuggets -9 before reports emerged that Tyler Herro could suit up for the first time this NBA Finals. The total has gone up ⬆️ since it opened at 207.5, rising to 209.5.

SERIES SWINGS: The Nuggets went from -800 to -10000 to win the series after taking Game 4 in Miami, while the Heat are now priced at +2000. But about that -10000 price tag, those were the same odds Nikola Jokic had to lead the series in assists. Jokic trails Jamal Murray (+2500) by 10 in that category.

TOP PROP: Gabe Vincent over 9.5 points leads all player props in handle, even though he has combined for 9 over the past two contests.