Senior editor Max Meyer will be sharing his favorite moneyline underdog 🐶 upset picks in weekend Hustle editions. So far, he’s up +12.08 units (15-15 record) and here’s his top one for today.
Bears +125 at Browns [1 p.m. ET]
The Browns have gotten a lot of praise, and deservingly so, for having one of the most terrifying defenses in the NFL this season. But you know who has also had an elite defense over the past two months? The Bears. Chicago’s defense ranks fifth in EPA per play since Week 7, while Cleveland’s is actually one spot behind over the same span. Now the Bears get to face a banged-up Browns offensive line and an ancient 👴🏻 Joe Flacco, and Cleveland could really struggle to get its ground game going against the NFL’s second-best rush defense by yards per carry allowed.
Flacco has been a nice story 📖 since taking over under center in Cleveland, however he’s turned the ball over three times and the Browns have only converted 30.3% of their third downs in those two games. On the flip side, Justin Fields has looked sharp since his return and has been much better against man defense (which the Browns play at the highest rate in the NFL) compared to zone. Chicago has been playing its best football of the season and I think that momentum continues today.