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September 21, 2023

Welcome back to Total Thursday, where we’ll be looking at a noteworthy total bet (excluding TNF) every week.

One Week 3 game currently has the highest total of the season, as Chargers-Vikings sits at 54 after opening at 51.5. The season opener between the Lions and Chiefs had the highest closing total so far this campaign at 53.

Since the start of last season, there have been four totals that have closed at 54 or higher. Not only did all four of them go under, but three of them didn’t even reach 45 points 😬.

So far, 68.9% of the tickets for this total are on the over but 67.2% of the handle is actually on the under. We brought in trader Will Radice to get his view πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™‚οΈΒ on why this total is so high and the action he’s been seeing on it.

The market bet this total up to 54 not only because of the offensive firepower but also the fact they’re going up against struggling defenses. The Vikings are third in yards per play at 6.3 and the Chargers are sixth at 5.5. However, the Chargers are dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.9. Minnesota has been blitzing a lot under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, but the pressure rate on those blitzes hasn’t been very high. So while it’s rare to see a total of 54 nowadays in the NFL, but this environment warrants it. Yet, while we saw lots of initial action on over 51.5, the majority of the action has been on under 54.5 and 54 since we bumped the number up.