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January 26, 2024

The 49ers were first bet down from -7 to -6.5 against the Lions when the NFC Championship spread was posted. The line then moved back to its original position and stayed at 49ers -7 for three straight days.

The line moved again Thursday night, but not back to 49ers -6.5. Rather, it reached new territory with San Francisco now laying 7.5 points 🀨.

So why has this spread been ticking in San Francisco’s direction throughout the week? We brought on trader Spencer Fitzroy to help explain.

ASK THE TRADER: Deebo Samuel reporting to practice on Thursday is the biggest factor in the spread shifting to 7.5. It’s a positive sign he’ll play Sunday after suffering a shoulder injury against the Packers and he’s a big deal for that offense. The Niners have put up 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field versus 5.7 without him. His improved likelihood of playing has obviously instilled confidence from sharp bettors in the Niners’ chances on Sunday.