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December 5, 2023

We’re four weeks out from the College Football Playoff semifinals, however the early money has spoken.

Alabama opened as a 1.5-point underdog to top-seeded Michigan and is now down to +1. If the Crimson Tide close as underdogs, it would be the first time doing so against a non-SEC team since 2008 ๐Ÿ˜ฎ.

Yet, bettors are all over the dog ๐Ÿถ so far, particularly on the moneyline. In fact, there has been more handle placed on Alabama moneyline (currently +100 vs. Michigan) than the other three CFP teamsโ€™ spreads and moneylines combined.

Trader Wyatt Satre returns to discuss where he sees this spread ending up and why Alabama has been getting so much betting interest.

ASK THE TRADER: Alabama ML has received by far the most action of any CFP bet so far, although all of that has been public money. I think it’s mostly recency bias given Alabama’s convincing win over Georgia. Michigan hasn’t faced a QB as athletic as Jalen Milroe this season, so the market could have questions there. This spread should hover around a pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama closes as a small favorite. We also made the Crimson Tide title co-favorites with Michigan because they’re our biggest liabilities and we’ve continued to see action on them after the top 4 was released.