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October 12, 2023

Welcome back to Total Thursday, where we’ll be looking at noteworthy totals (excluding TNF) every week.

Besides the TNF total that has dropped from 51.5 to 47.5, there are three other Week 6 totals that have shifted by at least 3.5 points. We brought in trader Jake Fisher to help explain 🕵️‍♂️ the big moves.

49ers at Browns (Opened 42, now 37.5)
ASK THE TRADER: Light showers and wind gusts up around 30 MPH will make it difficult for these offenses to move the ball against such stellar defensive units. Reports suggest that if Deshaun Watson can’t go (shoulder), the Browns are likely to start former XFL QB PJ Walker. That’s why you’re seeing a rare combo of the spread going up by 4 points (49ers -3 to -7) despite the total going down by 4.5 points.

Vikings at Bears (Opened 48.5, now 44.5)
ASK THE TRADER: Rain should lighten up in time for the 1 p.m. ET kick, but the Windy City 🍃 will live up to its name with strong cross winds (30 MPH). The Vikings have only played outdoors twice this season and are missing WR1 Justin Jefferson (hamstring). Expect Minnesota to pound the rock often behind Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 offensive line in terms of run blocking.

Cowboys at Chargers (Opened 47.5, now 51)
ASK THE TRADER: The Chargers expect to get Austin Ekeler (ankle) back following their bye week and the Cowboys will want to respond after an ugly offensive showing in San Francisco. A key matchup will be the Bolts’ fourth-ranked offense ⚡ against the Cowboys’ sixth-ranked D in terms of yards per game. There hasn’t been much fourth-quarter scoring in the Cowboys’ three blowout wins, but the Chargers haven’t lost by more than one score in their last 14 games.